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Wall Street’s trading desks are having a great year. The election could keep that going.
24 Oct 2024
Trading desks at major banks are expecting a flurry of activity when the chaotic 2024 election comes to a close, and that could cement what is already a banner year for Wall Street.
 
Trading volume tends to go up immediately after a presidential election ends, according to Bank of America head of markets Jim Demare, starting on the day after the event.
 
This year, he told Yahoo Finance, "I would anticipate that … the day after mirrors those previous years."
 
If that happens, traders could add to what is already a record haul. Through the first three quarters of 2024, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) posted roughly $89 billion in combined fixed income and equity trading revenue.
 
Not only is that up 5.5% from 2023, it is also the highest trading amount for that nine-month period ever recorded by the five largest Wall Street banks. The trading of equities is driving much of this performance.
 
"We would expect people to want to put some risk on post-election," Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup’s head of equity trading strategy, told Yahoo Finance.
 
"With the caveat that the election is resolved in a straightforward way, then the US equity market looks set-up well into year-end," Kaiser added.
 
The reasons for the run up thus far this year are widespread, ranging from a reduction in interest rates initiated by the Federal Reserve to geopolitical unrest to the uncertainty surrounding this year’s Presidential election.
 
"The wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility and pockets of opportunity, which the banks have benefitted from," Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg told Yahoo Finance.
 
Markets currently see the US election as the most volatile event before the end of 2024, based on implied volatility tracked by Citigroup, followed by the October jobs report scheduled to be released on Nov. 1 and third quarter earnings for star chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).
 
Some on Wall Street aren’t waiting for Election Day and said they are already making trading moves as they anticipate a win by Republican Donald Trump.
 
They include Dan Loeb, founder and CEO of hedge fund Third Point, who has said his firm has purchased stocks and options that could benefit from a Trump administration.
 
"We also believe that a reduction in regulation generally and especially in the activist antitrust stance of the Biden-Harris administration will unleash productivity and a wave of corporate activity."
 
There is certainly the risk that too much chaos or uncertainty can lead to lower trading activity or even higher losses in extreme cases.
 
But volatility surrounding an event is generally viewed on Wall Street as a positive for trading desks that typically don’t actively hold positions for long periods.
 
"We're in the moving business, not the storage business, so to speak," Bank of America’s DeMare said.
 
David Hollerith is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering banking, crypto, and other areas in finance.
 
Hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb in 2016. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo · Reuters / Reuters
"We believe the proposed ‘America First’ policy’s tariffs will increase domestic manufacturing, infrastructure spending, and prices of certain materials and commodities," Loeb told Third Point investors last week in a letter.
 
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